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Author Topic: Thunderhorn Demographics Revisited  (Read 4995 times)
ToroToro
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« on: March 27, 2007, 01:28:17 am »

What follows is a transcription of my latest post on the Thunderhorn forums. Just for general interest.


Ladies, Gentlethings, and Gnomes,

From time to time I am asked if I still track server demographics as I once did, back when the Alliance outnumbered horde 3 or 4 to 1, Crossroads was perpetually pally-occupied territory, and the hills were young.  The answer was usually "nah, not really, people generally aren't mathematically literate enough to handle basic statistics and concepts like absolute numbers vs. proportions. Plus, it always seems to end in a discussion of how pallys need nerf."

But, screw on your thinking caps, because by popular demand evil Uncle Toro is back with another round of numbers and an attempt to edumacate you to the changes (and notable not-changes) in your post - BC server demographics. For those of you who are not mathematically literate, I will give the factoids up front at an intellectual level suitable for starting Ironforge bar brawls. For those of you with more time, patience, and ability, you can go on to part II, where I will discuss leading indicators useful for raid and instance party formation. Finally, in part III,  I will briefly discuss the sampling methods used to derive the numbers, for those of you armchair statisticians who love to nitpick but are unwilling to do the work yourselves.

Part IV is reply pre-emptions. By noting the pre-emptions you can avoid making pointless and redundant reply posts and save precious pixels.

Part I: The Beer and Peanuts Figures

Factoid 1: Alliance/Horde Ratio: Since BC,  ratio has changed from .4 to 1 to 0.66 to 1. That is, Horde is 2/3rds as large as Alliance now. This is either a good or a bad thing, depending on how you feel about Blood Elf girls and their wildly animated, umm, bosoms.  Since I'm more of a "hips and tail" man myself, I'm unimpressed, but it remains a matter of taste.

Factoid 2: Night Elf Hunters still have a firm grip on "least original in game" title. There are as many or more  Night Elf Hunters than:

All warlocks of all races and both factions put together;

Dwarves any class;

Gnomes any class;

Draenei any class:

Orcs any class;

Tauren any class;

Alliance paladins of any race;

Snowflakes in Winterspring.

This is a marginal improvement over 2005 when Night Elf Hunters outnumbered Horde, but still pretty weak. Come on, alliance bishes, take an originality pill.

Factoid 3: Elves of both types are now 40% of the server population.

Factoid 4: "Most original class/race combo" title is a tie with dueling margins of error between Troll Warriors and Gnome Warriors. BTW, trolls are better. That's my scientific judgement.

Factoid 5: Better than 1 in 5 Hordies is now a blood Elf. And, in an a complete disgrace to the traditions of strength and honor, 1 in 10 Hordies is now a pally. For shame! The complementary race, the Draenei, however, only make up about 10% of the alliance, and only 1 in 20 or so alliance are draenei shamans. So much for the shammies being the leetness that everyone on alliance would want to be. Given a choice, more people roll pallies.

Factoid 6: Night elves, however, are no longer the most populous race. The most populous race is now....drum roll....humans. Yawnzor. Oh well. At least humans choose more diverse classes rather than all going to hunter vocational education.

Factoid 7: Based on sheer numbers, it's safe to assume that out there somewhere is someone who has played TWO night elf hunters to 70.  This person needs to be duct-taped to a tree while their elfquest collection and legolas action figures are burned before their eyes and then have false tusks glued to their incisors. NO ONE EXPECTS THE TROLLISH INQUISITION....

Raiding/Party Statistics

In an ideal world for instance-goers, 1 in 5 players would be a tanking-specced pally or war (sorry, due to the recent nerf, druids are no longer counted as potential tanks).  But, for both factions, the proportion of all warriors and pallies of all specs put together is at or about 20%, meaning true tanks are of necessity in much shorter supply.

Again, another ideal world figure would be that 1 in 5 players is a resto-specced healer. Counting paladins as potential healers (a concept which, as a tank, I am highly suspicious of, but knowledgeable ex-alliance insist to me that it is possible) the ratio of potential healers to all other classes for both factions remains at about .34 to 1. Again, this does not take into account that only a percentage of classes capable for healing spec resto, but it at least should indicate that it is notionally easier to find a healer than a tank.

406, or 35% of the Horde observed, were at level 70.  640, or 36%, of the Alliance observed were at  level 70. So, in terms of proportions of their factions, level 70's are about equally common on both sides. This is an interesting change, since at server start Alliance toons leveled much faster than Horde toons, but this discrepancy seems to have faded.

DPS classes are slightly better represented on Horde, except for hunters.


Part III Sampling Method:

Sample was derived using censusplus 3x over the last 7 days at or about 9pm server time each night and tabulated using excel. Warcraft Realms data, which contains lots of "ghost" toons that have since been deleted or abandoned, was not used: only the data derived from samples over the last week were considered for my statistics.

IV Reply Pre-Emptions:

Nerf pallies. Noted.

Druids are nerfed. Noted.

Every alliance male  under age 13 rolled a female blood elf paladin to oggle, explaining why the Horde / Alliance populations have abruptly equalized and why 1 in 5 Horde are now blood elves. Your opinion is noted, but there is no way to prove your assertion since we cannot attach the age and gender of a real life player to any toon using census programs. If you assert it, prove it.

Yes I still play this game. Your amazement / jeering / fawning adoration are noted and appreciated for their respective merits. Thank you.

Warcraft realms population figures are messed up. Noted, they were not used, dumbo. See part III.

"First Post!" Yeah, lucky you. Next.
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« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2007, 02:10:32 am »

Factoid 2: Night Elf Hunters still have a firm grip on "least original in game" title. There are as many or more  Night Elf Hunters than:

Hunters are IMO one of the funnest classes in the game to play. The ability to solo more game content easier than other classes is very attractive. You can call it easy mode if ya want, its still damn fun. If you are going to go easy mode why not go EASIER mode. Play a NE hunter with shadow meld. It makes it possible to creep through many instances you should not be able to. Not to mention the ability to chill out while you heal up in PVP. NE hunters are really fun to play!

Factoid 4: "Most original class/race combo" title is a tie with dueling margins of error between Troll Warriors and Gnome Warriors. BTW, trolls are better. That's my scientific judgement.

I think this has something to do with what I call "the ugly factor". Yes I play a troll warrior for almost the same reason you mentioned. Tauren warriors were a dime a dozen and I already had an orc toon. So I chose the fuckin ugliest race of the Horde faction. It still bugs me sometimes knowing that no matter what gear I get, its never gonna look "cool" on me.
As far as I am concerned putting cool looking gear on a gnome is just kind of insulting. I mean I look goofy but gnome and dwarves are just a waste of pixels as far as looks are concerned. In a graphically oriented game where you stare at the screen all the time its fairly important that things look pretty cool (for many people). Its just the way things are, its not a pen and paper game every thing has visual representation so yea looks are pretty important.


Factoid 6: Night elves, however, are no longer the most populous race. The most populous race is now....drum roll....humans. Yawnzor. Oh well. At least humans choose more diverse classes rather than all going to hunter vocational education.

With reputation being (arguably) one of the most important stats in the game  now it makes sense that people would choose a race with a bonus to rep gains. Since so many "rewards" now are based on rep its pretty smart to play a race that can get to those rewards easier.

In an ideal world for instance-goers, 1 in 5 players would be a tanking-specced pally or war (sorry, due to the recent nerf, druids are no longer counted as potential tanks).

Nah they unnerfed druids a while back. They are fine tanks now, not as uber but still on par with a warrior.


Counting paladins as potential healers

Paladins are extremely solid healers. I mean that they are very good at it and yea they can even take a hit if they pull agro. The buffs they offer are a window into something that we used to call "easy mode". Alliance raiding parties have been enjoying the easy life since the game launched. But Blizzard decided that paladins are no longer a luxury. Much of the in game content now is simply silly to do without a paladin. Our paladins have already been healing and tanking in raids and I have very little doubt about how useful they are.

These are just my opinions, but I think it explains some of the reasons behind some of the statistics

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« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2007, 03:09:56 am »

i liked that post Toro Smiley and the followup by Gravy

make more, i need somehting to read in the morning Tongue
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« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2007, 07:11:35 am »

Have to agree with Gravy on the pally issue Smiley  Go in an instance with Aynrand solo healing or Praetoria tanking (sorry Eck... I haven't actually seen you in action yet to comment).  Also, go in an instance with Wattietu, Flankersteak, or Santorum tanking... druids can tank just fine with the right gear.  So add a few extra tanks to the list and you're just about right.

Got a few players over 13 playing BE too... not all are alliance teenage imports. Smiley

Also agree with Chylli -- good post! Smiley
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« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2007, 07:51:27 am »

I'm over the age of 13 but staring at my boobelf's tits make me feel like i'm 13 again.  Does that count?

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« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2007, 08:40:49 am »

i'll echo gravy. druids got un-nerfed the week after they were crushed. from what i can tell, druids are not as durable as a warrior (in raids), but offer much, MUCH, MUCH more threat in an extended battle. i don't remember exactly, but i think i had something in the realm of double gravy's threat on moroes by the time our raid started in on him after the adds. i'd wager to say that our second success over moroes is due to having both warrior and druid tanking available.

and yes, paladins are very viable healers. i instance a lot with Aynrand, and the heals he puts out are pretty damn awesome. they work different from priests and druids, so some encounters are harder, but some encounters that might give a druid or priest pause are trivial.

but anyways! awesome read Smiley excellent presentation of the data you collected!
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« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2007, 09:56:53 am »

I still don't understand what's the matter with you and the paladins. I'm sorry, but if you are to play with us, or horde at all, you will have to "Learn 2 love the pally". I think you just never really experienced the palliness being on your side.

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« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2007, 12:53:34 pm »

All i can say is "Salvation" i don't care if they are cute and cudly as long as they can give me that sweet sweet dope i want them in !

Seriously that buff alone mean a lot more dps in raid since without it we pretty much have to stop casting or go over the agro ceiling and suffer an horrible death, that is as long as some unnamed hunter don't go around doing misdirection on the DPS...

But even without salvation, you still get the most mana efficient healing in the game, nothing come even close to it. As for tanking, well i can get a double lightning overload chain lightning crit on mobs and still not pull agro from praetoria that is something i would never even dare attempt with a warrior or druid but then warrior and druid don't run out of mana on long fight.


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Frozie
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« Reply #8 on: March 27, 2007, 01:03:02 pm »

Paladin tanks have to work hard to run out of mana, since every time you heal him/her, you give him/her back 10% of the healing points in mana.
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« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2007, 02:04:01 pm »

Well, they don't have to work too hard to run out of mana Wink  I've seen Praetoria drained.

That may have been a tactical thing that can be worked out via strategy though.  My experience is limited.
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« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2007, 02:10:56 pm »

Yeah, Praetoria seems to be getting good at managing mana, but there are times he's run out. I know if I've been healing and been ok on mana, I've dropped him some huge heals or innervated him just so he could get some mana back. That blessing thinger they do where when they hit stuff they get mana back seemed to help a lot.
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« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2007, 02:14:35 pm »

There are a lot of very interesting ideas about what paladin healing is capable of, or not capable of - in this thread and elsewhere.

Livereater said it well.  There are situations where paladin healing is great, and there are situations where we struggle and priest don't.  I've seen preists and driuds pull some amazing feats in situations where Ayn would have really struggled.

That is another topic though, and I don't want to derail this, so I'll stop there.
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« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2007, 02:30:57 pm »

The only thing I see that paladins lack compared to priests and druids, is a heal over time. We also got judgements we can put on mobs to help with regeneration. Seal of Wisdom can regen up to 70 mana or so on each hit, and Seal of Light can regen up to 90 or so health on each hit. The values might not be right, but it's still very useful. That's our "HoT". It kinda sucks, but it's good for everyone attacking a particular mob.

A lot of paladins seems to forget about that kind of stuff, but it's kinda crutial on some fights. Makes it a lot easier on the healers to heal dps, like rogues and stuff. Wands do count as melee damage in that case, hence the "wand for manner!" thing... Grin
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« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2007, 02:38:40 pm »

There is more than HoTS.  We also lack a group heal, and a good instant "heal" - priests have sheild, druids have swiftmend.  Holy shock is worthwhile, but not as good.

Keeping seal of light on some bosses or trash is more dangerous than its worth, and you need to refresh it every 20 seconds.  It is also very weak compartively.

*edit:
Seal of light is also very mana ineffecient on all but bosses where it is feasible to refresh it with melee attacks.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2007, 02:47:55 pm by Heidegger » Logged

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« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2007, 02:48:07 pm »

Yeah, I think I really noticed the difference in healing styles when people talk about Black Morass. I know as a druid, the second boss fight is the hardest. That's a lot of healing to keep up with without going oom. The last fight is a breeze in comparison. I can have 3 hots ticking on the tank at all times so healing through the timestops takes really no effort.

Each of the three classes has their place, and it's great to see all three in a raid together, complimenting eachother Smiley

As a druid I wish a had a no-cooldown ooc rez, fade/low threat, a bubble/shield, or the super annoying ability of the paladin to never go oom (sorry, not jealous of the shadowfiend thing, that creeps me out). But I'm also thankful for my awesome HoTs, innervate and wipe-saving in combat rez (and of course, kickass tree-dance).

(notice no one talking about shaman healers? where's our damn shaman healers?!?)
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« Reply #15 on: March 27, 2007, 02:56:36 pm »

shaman healers is a myth... they're so good at dpsing, that we don't care if they don't heal anymore. Since the paladin is doing incredibly well on healing, the shaman doesn't have to pickup on it anymore. Their heals are really inefficient compared to the paladins and not worth what the druids and priests can achieve. I think everything turned out for the best.

my $0.02 Wink
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« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2007, 03:42:45 pm »

Our heal aren't that inneficient the problem is that the only talented mana regen for shaman is mana stream and mana tide. That is a water totem and end up unusable on most fight since it's the poison/disease/fire resist totem also. If they gave resto shaman a good mana regen tool they would be up to the priest/druid/pally healing. Right now it's nowhere close.

Let's look at our class defining heal.

Chain heal is pretty good for keeping melee up but the efficiency of it is not quite up to the priest group heal and it's kinda expensive even with the talent.

Earth shield, 900mana, with 800+healing it tick 10 time for 550 giving you 5.5k agro free. Nice but i know eck can crit for more for very little agro and a lot less mana while wearing crapier gear (sory dude but i got some very nice healing gear).

I'm walking around with 144 mana/5 (while casting off course) in healing gear and i still run out before the end of about any boss and i mean drank a pot and still end up dry a good minute before it's dead.

Ok i'm not resto currently but i did try it and still had fairly good healing gear. I ended up drinking after every single pull and each pull i was close to being out of mana, and no the group didn't suck.

Oh and that was the crypt at level 70 not quite the uber challenge. To compare, my priest used to drink after 4-5 pull while being discipline it was actually viable.

Mostly a resto shaman in raid is a off heal with mana tide for the other caster and eath shield for the boss, you have the dps of a wet noodle and won't last through most fight unless you have crazy gear and lots of mana pots (i do level 40 damage while being resto).  Why would anyone wish to make them self so weak while still not being up to the other healer longevity or efficiency i mean come on healing is already limiting enough without having to suck at it.

What we do have going for us is 2 insane dps tree, one with free cast on crit and the other with build in mana regen and some nice spot healing to prevent wipe when thing go south. I'm sorry but they need to make resto way more mana efficient or give them a mana regen tool that isn't tied to a totem otherwise it will remain rare as hell.
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« Reply #17 on: March 27, 2007, 04:18:54 pm »

i think mulk really captured the healing situation of Shammies well there Smiley

the way i see it right now the only viability we have in the way of healing is offheals, acting as a break for pulls gone bad or whartnot. especially when you talk about elemental builds. i got 350dmg AND healing, and with 27points in resto, my heals crit 23% of the times and buff the reciever for +25% armor. so if the main healer goes down, presto! insta backup. i think that's where Blizz means for us to be right now. and to complement my theory, the best mana regen talent of the Shammies  (storm something or other... 10% of int is added as M/5sec) is sitting way way up in the elem tree Wink
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« Reply #18 on: March 27, 2007, 04:40:43 pm »

I can throw some math into this thread later if your curious, but I'm going to make a statement based on diligently reading the forums of high-end raiding guilds for the better part of a year.

Restoration-specced Shaman are one of the most efficient and powerful healers in WoW. If you go this route and gear for it, you will be an excellent primary healer. The scalability and efficiency of Chain Heal is so good it's stupid. Mana Tide restores 24% of the total mana pool of every group member within 30 yards (if you have Totemic Mastery) on a 5 minute cooldown. (Comparison: Innervate affects one target and has a 6 minute cooldown.)

Shaman healing is not sub-par or gimped in any way. It's just different.
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« Reply #19 on: March 28, 2007, 12:42:00 am »

        Well i did say that the heal were good and only mana regen was an issue so yeah they are efficient but efficiency with 0 mana regen while casting doesn't get the job done. If you spec full resto the only thing you have to keep your mana up is your gear and mana tide (which is out on all fire, poison, disease boss, i used to hate the spider boss because of that).  Mana tide is 24% of everyone mana for 8k it's about  2k so a single mana pot.   

           Nice but not nearly enough and that is assuming there is 5 caster in your group, that all of them are in range and can remain in range. Well that doesn't happen very often my friend, a lot of fight ask for high mobility or a that people spread out a lot, this make mana tide fairly useless and i speak from experience on that one.  I ended up droping it because only one healer ever took advantage of it (yes tyr that's you).

         We do have a role where we really shine, If i wanted to keep a tank up and have one healer dedicated to it then yes a shaman would pretty much be one of the best choice. Healing way fully stacked is 18% more healing (stack 3 time last 15 second work only for healing wave the long heal) , you add purification another 10% and each crit give 25% armor to the tank add earth shield and you should be able to keep that tank up for a very long time. 

            Chain heal for cleave and spillover yep it get the job done and that is why it was designed no complain there it's the best heal for that and is the friend of rogues everywhere (target the tank heal the rogue a little Cheesy).

              But if you have any serious damage going on well i guess you could spam it and try to get the group of people that are all within about 5yard of each other but then what the hell are they doing so grouped up if they are all taking damage. Can you main heal 5 man yes, but you will need to drink often and to me that gets annoying.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2007, 12:51:10 am by Mulk » Logged
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« Reply #20 on: March 28, 2007, 04:32:24 pm »

In all honesty, it doesn't really bother me what people really play. I'll do five mans without a healer or tank without frowning on it. I enjoy using every classes ability to keep from whiping. Though, you'll never see me playing a Paladin simply because I've grown a hatred for them that sprouted early in my D&D (when Hasbro bought out WOtC) days.

I do welcome them with open arms in groups though. Good post, good follow-up. *thumbs up*
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« Reply #21 on: March 28, 2007, 05:46:16 pm »

that sprouted early in my D&D (when Hasbro bought out WOtC) days.

Holy crap, I had no idea. I kind of stopped following it some time ago.
Back in MY day TSR got bought out by WOtC!
I thought it was preposterous that a card game was so popular that it was able to earn enough money to buy out TSR. Guess it was short lived. Smiley
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« Reply #22 on: March 28, 2007, 06:12:32 pm »

Hasbro bought magic wow
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« Reply #23 on: March 28, 2007, 06:53:54 pm »

Holy crap, I had no idea. I kind of stopped following it some time ago.
Back in MY day TSR got bought out by WOtC!
I thought it was preposterous that a card game was so popular that it was able to earn enough money to buy out TSR. Guess it was short lived. Smiley

yeah, admittedly i havnt been following it since the WotC TSR buyout, but damn... Hasbro?!

i miss the paperback first edition books Sad
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« Reply #24 on: March 29, 2007, 04:58:40 pm »

If you're wondering why D&D is now based for kiddies and all of their games are getting Teen ratings (for really lame reasons) it's all because of kiddie loving Hasbro. There's so much good stuff that's being cut from the games (tabletop and console/computer). It really makes me wonder what companies (including Blizzard) actually cut from the game.
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« Reply #25 on: March 31, 2007, 10:56:19 am »

actually the market for D&D or any other tabletop RPG here is summed up by me and the dude who used to DM for me. and he's not even really into it anymore.

so its just me

not really worth it for anyone to try and import stuff. hence my lack of updateage.
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